Sunny Optical (2382.HK):Equal-weight,PT HK$95.00
机构:摩根士丹利
评级:中性
We see further downside to consensus earnings estimates, though we believe much of the concern is in the price. Sunny's handset lenses are still making good progress but we see downside in vehicle lenses, while there are no signs of recovery in the module business.
Why not UW: Looking on a 3-5 year view, Sunny is still one of our preferred plays in the hardware space given its share gain potential in lenses. The largest near-term concern for Sunny has been the module's gross margin, of which the market is well aware. The question is whether there's more downside or upside for the margin from this level, and we currently take a view of GPM to stay between 9-10% in coming years. Historically, Sunny's CCM GPM was 9-10% during downcycle (1H15-1H16) but rebounded to 11-13% during 2H16-2H17 thanks to better product mix (dual camera trend) We believe incremental growth from triple camera won't be as large as dual camera and competition has become more intense than before.
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