机构：德意志银行

　　评级：买入

　　目标价：76.2港元

　　Forecast VNB +18%, +19% on constant currency (CER) 

　　AIA is due to report 3Q18 results on 9 Nov (Fri). We forecast 3Q18E VNB of US $ 998 mn, reflecting a growth of 18.0% yoy (+19.0% on CER), driven by a pickup involume (ANP +20%), which should more than offset some margin deterioration(-1.0ppt to 58.5%). We expect HK/China to remain key growth markets, along with Singapore, Other Markets and ongoing recovery in Thailand. We reiterate our Buy rating on AIA and continue to see it as a core holding for investors thanks to its consistency in delivering results, strong capital position and unique competitive position in Asia. We see recent share price weakness driven by macro concerns as buying opportunities.

　　Expect robust trends in most markets 

　　As highlighted in our note on 13 Sept, we expect HK growth to pick up in 2H18E on robust local demand and strong ongoing demand for protection and long-term savings policies from mainland visitors. While China may face a relatively high base in Sept, overall growth should remain robust, albeit at a slower pace vs. 1H18. Singapore should benefit from a volume spike driven ahead of a regulator imposed commission cut on single-premium unit-linked policies starting 1 Oct,which had brought forward sales. Other Markets should see a pickup as we understand that some Australian group business came through in 3Q18. We also expect the recovery in Thailand to continue into 3Q18 with continued expansion in Financial Adviser program to drive quality growth. The only market that may remain weak would be Malaysia due to economic uncertainties under a new government. Overall, we believe 3Q18 should be a fairly robust quarter for AIA.

　　Currency impacts on VNB turned negative

　　On the macro fronts, Asian equity markets and currencies have remained weak since 1H18, with equity markets declining by an average of 4.9% (vs. -7.0% in1H18), and currencies declining by an average of 1.9% qoq (vs. -1.8% in 1H18).These effects are largely captured in our 2018E EV forecasts, which assumes a negative inv return variance of US$1.1bn (vs. US$-1.4bn in 1H18) and currency loss of US$746 mn (vs. US$-754mn). The currency drag on 3Q18 VNB (based on yoy change in avg currencies) should be fairly limited at ~1% but will likely increase to -2.0% in 4Q18E , -5.1% in 1Q19E, and -4.1% in 2Q19E, assuming currencies remain at current levels, which presents downside to our current forecasts. 

　　Reiterate Buy with a target price of HK$76.2/shr

　　We value AIA based on a target 2019E NB multiple of 12.2x, implying 2019E P/EV of 1.9x. We forecast VNB growth of 23.4% (21.2% on CER) in 2018E, implying 2H18E growth of 25.0% (vs. 21.7% in 1H18). Investment risks include weaker than-expected VNB growth, Asian currencies and equity market weaknesses